More Pandemic Ramblings
Yeast shortages, and flour "dry goods"https://www.foodandwine.com/news/yeast-supply-shortage-coronavirus
16 April 2020
"King Arthur Flour has reported sales that are three-times higher than usual. "Typically, at this time of year, we’re operating at 50 [percent] capacity,” the company's co-CEO Karen Colberg said. 'But in the past couple of weeks we’ve turned on to full tilt, and we’re operating 24/7.'”
"But nothing has seen a bigger sales jump than dry yeast. According to Nielsen, yeast sales were up by 647 percent at the end of March, compared to the same week last year. "No other grocery product tracked by Nielsen experienced such rapid sales growth in that seven-day period," Business Insider reported."
"Bob Moore, the founder of Bob's Red Mill, said that he hasn't seen a run on his products—including yeast—like this one since we were all terrified about Y2K...."
Moore said "any yeast shortages are only temporary, though, and it's partially because of the amount of time required to grow, ship, and deliver a yeast order. (For Bob's Red Mill, it can take up to 50 days, from the time the yeast is grown until it appears on grocery store shelves.)
There are two major challenges when it comes to getting those tiny packets back in stock anywhere. First, there's a limit to how quickly yeast, you know, happens. "Yeast takes a certain time to go from one cell to two cells,” Sudeep Agarwala, a yeast geneticist who works for the biotech firm Gingko Bioworks, told Slate. “You can do everything you can to speed it up, but there’s a hard limit to how fast they can double.”
And once the yeast is ready, there seems to be an upper limit to how fast it can be packaged too. Fleischmanns has said that, despite its attempts to physically speed up production at its plants, it has run into problems sourcing jars and paper packets.
"We could have handled twice the normal demand," Robb MacKie, president and CEO of the American Bakers Association, said. "But five times the normal [demand] almost overnight—no one can prepare for that."
Here's Why All the Yeast Is Sold Out Right Now - By Rebecca Firkser
March 28, 2020.
https://food52.com/blog/25164-yeast-shortage-coronavirus-explained
Grocery stores have been stocking to meet daily, not multi-weekly needs.
"The CDC recommends having a two-week supply of food at home while still limiting trips to the grocery store, which means people need more food, but less often." >a huge change in buying habits!
The Yeast Supply Chain Can't Just Activate Itself - By Aaron Mak
April 15, 2020
https://slate.com/business/2020/04/yeast-shortage-supermarkets-coronavirus.html
(Some of the companies I saw mentioned as producing yeast)
Red Star Yeast. Bob's Mills. Fleischmanns Yeast.
Robb MacKie, president and CEO of the American Bakers Association, said the industry was unprepared for the run on yeast because there’s usually a lull in demand for bread products and ingredients in the first quarter of the year, while the peak typically comes during the November and December holidays. The pandemic has flipped that schedule on its head, he said, with demand surpassing what producers would expect even in the busy season.
...
As with toilet paper and hand sanitizer and pasta, it’s tough for the dry yeast supply chain to accommodate an astronomical surge in demand. John Heilman, vice president of manufacturing for Fleischmann’s Yeast producer AB Mauri, roughly estimates that it’ll take a month or two until shoppers will see a consistent supply of dry yeast on shelves. “I’ve been with the company for five years, and this is by far the highest demand I’ve ever seen,” he said, noting that there’s been as much as a 600 percent increase year over year. In the past there have been demand spikes during large snowstorms, but those don’t even come close to what Heilman is seeing now. (He also said that demand for fresh yeast, which the company also produces, has been softening during the pandemic, because so many restaurants have either limited their offerings for takeout or have closed down altogether.)
Yeast are single-celled fungi that come in 1,500 different species; humans have been cultivating them to make breads and alcoholic beverages for 5,000 years. Nowadays, as Quartz outlines, industrial-scale production for retail involves mixing molasses with yeast strains that have been bred to select for traits that are optimal for baking. The yeast is then placed in a series of fermenters where it’s fed oxygen and sugar, allowing it to reproduce. The resulting product goes into a centrifuge to separate out the solids, which can then be aerated, filtered, dried, and packaged.
But the supply chain issues may not have anything to do with these ingredients. Instead, a major problem seems to be getting all that yeast packaged.
Heilman, who oversees three Fleischmann’s Yeast plants in the U.S., has been trying to ramp up production by staffing facilities to max capacity and asking workers to hold off on vacations. “From a molasses standpoint and growing the yeast itself, there’s plenty of capacity,” he said. “Where we wound up maxed out is our ability to package.” The facility in India where the company gets its jars was shuttered, and materials for paper packets have also run low. The extra staff that the plants are recruiting will mostly be aiding this packet packaging effort, as well as drying the yeast.
There’s another hurdle that makes it difficult to quickly scale up yeast production. While plants may be able to streamline production domestically by hiring more people and working longer hours, certain segments of the process are restricted by a biological clock. “Yeast takes a certain time to go from one cell to two cells,” says Sudeep Agarwala, a yeast geneticist who works for the biotech firm Ginkgo Bioworks.* “You can do everything you can to speed it up, but there’s a hard limit to how fast they can double.” Yeast also needs to consume sugar gradually—a production plant can’t force-feed the cells at a faster clip. Heilman says that the process at his plants is maxed out at 10 days to make the most product in the shortest amount of time. Trying to cut that time results in lower volumes per batch. Having more equipment at a plant’s disposal could eventually help to deliver larger volumes, but it’s impossible to get it shipped and installed on such short notice.
Yeast plants have also had to implement more health measures for their employees. According to MacKie, facilities across the country have been doing temperature checks, putting up plexiglass shields, and distributing personal protective equipment. “We need to keep these plants operational and protect the employees,” said MacKie. “We are worried.”
"The Case of the Missing Toilet Paper" - By Jen Wieczner and David Z. Morris
20 May 2020
https://fortune.com/2020/05/20/virtual-brainstorm-finance/
"the Great Toilet Paper Panic of 2020"
March 12th - TP sales ballooned by 732% compared to last year, suddenly "becoming the top-selling product for grocery store by dollars spent" Experts estimate that people suddenly staying at home could need up to 40% more TP... buying stayed up by 70% every day through May 2nd. And would have been higher, except that the shelves are empty and they can't buy it.
Timeline: March 11, 2020. The World Health Organization declares the coronavirus a pandemic. Pictures of empty shelves started appearing on social media, and fueled a full-blown panic. Perception becomes reality.
It turns out that toilet paper is a uniquely complicated product: bulky, expensive to store. It has become the poster child for the trend over the last decade towards "just in time manufacturing." the right amount at the right time, so no one ever has to store a bunch. a very lean operation. you never have more than a few weeks worth on hand.
"Toilet paper is uniquely costly and capital intensive..." (so you never want to store a lot at any given time) Pandemic comes along & the supply chain doesn't have any way to catch up.
Unlike say shampoo, where they can simply open another assembly line, the machines that manufacture TP are very expensive and massive (2 stories high). $300 million/ 18 months for one? AND no one wants to be stuck with massive quantities when the crisis passes.
There are 3 big players in this industry: Proctor & Gamble - they make Charmin, Kimberly-Clark makes Cotonelle and Scott, and Georgia Pacific (not a Fortune 500 company)
PG and KC have scaled back the variety of types being produced, because it takes a significant amount of time to change the packaging and type of paper. So: trying to eliminate downtime whenever and where ever possible. Running more shifts to get as close to 24/7 as possible.
At the same time they are ramping up, they continue to plan for the eventual drop in demand. to take production back down quickly when they get the signals
K-C says they are producing more 4packs and 6packs, to be able to get at least some stock to all their customers.
On the whole, they think customers are just as happy with fewer choices, so they probably will eliminate some products permanently.
Stunning example of a very lean industry--good profits, happy shareholders. But no buffer/ no give if there is suddenly a huge crisis.
Vox
"The toilet paper shortage is more complicated than you think" - By Terry Nguyen
3 April 2020
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/3/21206942/toilet-paper-coronavirus-shortage-supply-chain
Americans, who make up about 4 percent of the global population, also use more toilet paper than citizens of other countries: They account for 20 percent of global TP consumption.
many American companies are heavily reliant on overseas suppliers, primarily from China, for raw materials or finished products.
TP comes from 2 sources: virgin pulp from trees, or recycled pulp from materials like discarded paper or cardboard that’s reprocessed into pulp. Virgin pulp — a key material for TP brands like Charmin Ultra Soft and Angel Soft — is sourced from forests in the United States and Canada, and accounts for 23 percent of Canada’s forest product exports.
Collectively, we probably still use the same amount of toilet paper as we did before the pandemic, but suddenly, we’re expected to use more of our own supply. Most people are no longer eating out at restaurants or going to work or school — places where we conveniently use the restroom and the available toilet paper. Georgia-Pacific estimates that the average American household will use about 40 percent more toilet paper than usual if people spend all their time at home.
As Will Oremus reported for Medium, the toilet paper industry is divided into two markets: consumer (the likes of Quilted Northern, Charmin, or Cottonelle that you use at home) and commercial (bulky rolls of thin, scratchy paper you find in public restrooms). Most toilet paper manufacturers aren’t sure when consumer toilet paper supplies will be “back to normal” because, well, the situation isn’t normal. Businesses, workplaces, schools, and other public spaces that used to order commercial toilet paper have no need for it, while consumer demand has significantly increased.
Suppliers have to shift gears as demand for consumer toilet paper outweighs that of the commercial sector, but it’s not a simple task. The products are entirely different, down to size and packaging. “Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins,” Oremus reported.
16 April 2020
"King Arthur Flour has reported sales that are three-times higher than usual. "Typically, at this time of year, we’re operating at 50 [percent] capacity,” the company's co-CEO Karen Colberg said. 'But in the past couple of weeks we’ve turned on to full tilt, and we’re operating 24/7.'”
"But nothing has seen a bigger sales jump than dry yeast. According to Nielsen, yeast sales were up by 647 percent at the end of March, compared to the same week last year. "No other grocery product tracked by Nielsen experienced such rapid sales growth in that seven-day period," Business Insider reported."
"Bob Moore, the founder of Bob's Red Mill, said that he hasn't seen a run on his products—including yeast—like this one since we were all terrified about Y2K...."
Moore said "any yeast shortages are only temporary, though, and it's partially because of the amount of time required to grow, ship, and deliver a yeast order. (For Bob's Red Mill, it can take up to 50 days, from the time the yeast is grown until it appears on grocery store shelves.)
There are two major challenges when it comes to getting those tiny packets back in stock anywhere. First, there's a limit to how quickly yeast, you know, happens. "Yeast takes a certain time to go from one cell to two cells,” Sudeep Agarwala, a yeast geneticist who works for the biotech firm Gingko Bioworks, told Slate. “You can do everything you can to speed it up, but there’s a hard limit to how fast they can double.”
And once the yeast is ready, there seems to be an upper limit to how fast it can be packaged too. Fleischmanns has said that, despite its attempts to physically speed up production at its plants, it has run into problems sourcing jars and paper packets.
"We could have handled twice the normal demand," Robb MacKie, president and CEO of the American Bakers Association, said. "But five times the normal [demand] almost overnight—no one can prepare for that."
Here's Why All the Yeast Is Sold Out Right Now - By Rebecca Firkser
March 28, 2020.
https://food52.com/blog/25164-yeast-shortage-coronavirus-explained
Grocery stores have been stocking to meet daily, not multi-weekly needs.
"The CDC recommends having a two-week supply of food at home while still limiting trips to the grocery store, which means people need more food, but less often." >a huge change in buying habits!
The Yeast Supply Chain Can't Just Activate Itself - By Aaron Mak
April 15, 2020
https://slate.com/business/2020/04/yeast-shortage-supermarkets-coronavirus.html
(Some of the companies I saw mentioned as producing yeast)
Red Star Yeast. Bob's Mills. Fleischmanns Yeast.
Robb MacKie, president and CEO of the American Bakers Association, said the industry was unprepared for the run on yeast because there’s usually a lull in demand for bread products and ingredients in the first quarter of the year, while the peak typically comes during the November and December holidays. The pandemic has flipped that schedule on its head, he said, with demand surpassing what producers would expect even in the busy season.
...
As with toilet paper and hand sanitizer and pasta, it’s tough for the dry yeast supply chain to accommodate an astronomical surge in demand. John Heilman, vice president of manufacturing for Fleischmann’s Yeast producer AB Mauri, roughly estimates that it’ll take a month or two until shoppers will see a consistent supply of dry yeast on shelves. “I’ve been with the company for five years, and this is by far the highest demand I’ve ever seen,” he said, noting that there’s been as much as a 600 percent increase year over year. In the past there have been demand spikes during large snowstorms, but those don’t even come close to what Heilman is seeing now. (He also said that demand for fresh yeast, which the company also produces, has been softening during the pandemic, because so many restaurants have either limited their offerings for takeout or have closed down altogether.)
Yeast are single-celled fungi that come in 1,500 different species; humans have been cultivating them to make breads and alcoholic beverages for 5,000 years. Nowadays, as Quartz outlines, industrial-scale production for retail involves mixing molasses with yeast strains that have been bred to select for traits that are optimal for baking. The yeast is then placed in a series of fermenters where it’s fed oxygen and sugar, allowing it to reproduce. The resulting product goes into a centrifuge to separate out the solids, which can then be aerated, filtered, dried, and packaged.
But the supply chain issues may not have anything to do with these ingredients. Instead, a major problem seems to be getting all that yeast packaged.
Heilman, who oversees three Fleischmann’s Yeast plants in the U.S., has been trying to ramp up production by staffing facilities to max capacity and asking workers to hold off on vacations. “From a molasses standpoint and growing the yeast itself, there’s plenty of capacity,” he said. “Where we wound up maxed out is our ability to package.” The facility in India where the company gets its jars was shuttered, and materials for paper packets have also run low. The extra staff that the plants are recruiting will mostly be aiding this packet packaging effort, as well as drying the yeast.
There’s another hurdle that makes it difficult to quickly scale up yeast production. While plants may be able to streamline production domestically by hiring more people and working longer hours, certain segments of the process are restricted by a biological clock. “Yeast takes a certain time to go from one cell to two cells,” says Sudeep Agarwala, a yeast geneticist who works for the biotech firm Ginkgo Bioworks.* “You can do everything you can to speed it up, but there’s a hard limit to how fast they can double.” Yeast also needs to consume sugar gradually—a production plant can’t force-feed the cells at a faster clip. Heilman says that the process at his plants is maxed out at 10 days to make the most product in the shortest amount of time. Trying to cut that time results in lower volumes per batch. Having more equipment at a plant’s disposal could eventually help to deliver larger volumes, but it’s impossible to get it shipped and installed on such short notice.
Yeast plants have also had to implement more health measures for their employees. According to MacKie, facilities across the country have been doing temperature checks, putting up plexiglass shields, and distributing personal protective equipment. “We need to keep these plants operational and protect the employees,” said MacKie. “We are worried.”
"The Case of the Missing Toilet Paper" - By Jen Wieczner and David Z. Morris
20 May 2020
https://fortune.com/2020/05/20/virtual-brainstorm-finance/
"the Great Toilet Paper Panic of 2020"
March 12th - TP sales ballooned by 732% compared to last year, suddenly "becoming the top-selling product for grocery store by dollars spent" Experts estimate that people suddenly staying at home could need up to 40% more TP... buying stayed up by 70% every day through May 2nd. And would have been higher, except that the shelves are empty and they can't buy it.
Timeline: March 11, 2020. The World Health Organization declares the coronavirus a pandemic. Pictures of empty shelves started appearing on social media, and fueled a full-blown panic. Perception becomes reality.
It turns out that toilet paper is a uniquely complicated product: bulky, expensive to store. It has become the poster child for the trend over the last decade towards "just in time manufacturing." the right amount at the right time, so no one ever has to store a bunch. a very lean operation. you never have more than a few weeks worth on hand.
"Toilet paper is uniquely costly and capital intensive..." (so you never want to store a lot at any given time) Pandemic comes along & the supply chain doesn't have any way to catch up.
Unlike say shampoo, where they can simply open another assembly line, the machines that manufacture TP are very expensive and massive (2 stories high). $300 million/ 18 months for one? AND no one wants to be stuck with massive quantities when the crisis passes.
There are 3 big players in this industry: Proctor & Gamble - they make Charmin, Kimberly-Clark makes Cotonelle and Scott, and Georgia Pacific (not a Fortune 500 company)
PG and KC have scaled back the variety of types being produced, because it takes a significant amount of time to change the packaging and type of paper. So: trying to eliminate downtime whenever and where ever possible. Running more shifts to get as close to 24/7 as possible.
At the same time they are ramping up, they continue to plan for the eventual drop in demand. to take production back down quickly when they get the signals
K-C says they are producing more 4packs and 6packs, to be able to get at least some stock to all their customers.
On the whole, they think customers are just as happy with fewer choices, so they probably will eliminate some products permanently.
Stunning example of a very lean industry--good profits, happy shareholders. But no buffer/ no give if there is suddenly a huge crisis.
Vox
"The toilet paper shortage is more complicated than you think" - By Terry Nguyen
3 April 2020
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/3/21206942/toilet-paper-coronavirus-shortage-supply-chain
Americans, who make up about 4 percent of the global population, also use more toilet paper than citizens of other countries: They account for 20 percent of global TP consumption.
many American companies are heavily reliant on overseas suppliers, primarily from China, for raw materials or finished products.
TP comes from 2 sources: virgin pulp from trees, or recycled pulp from materials like discarded paper or cardboard that’s reprocessed into pulp. Virgin pulp — a key material for TP brands like Charmin Ultra Soft and Angel Soft — is sourced from forests in the United States and Canada, and accounts for 23 percent of Canada’s forest product exports.
Collectively, we probably still use the same amount of toilet paper as we did before the pandemic, but suddenly, we’re expected to use more of our own supply. Most people are no longer eating out at restaurants or going to work or school — places where we conveniently use the restroom and the available toilet paper. Georgia-Pacific estimates that the average American household will use about 40 percent more toilet paper than usual if people spend all their time at home.
As Will Oremus reported for Medium, the toilet paper industry is divided into two markets: consumer (the likes of Quilted Northern, Charmin, or Cottonelle that you use at home) and commercial (bulky rolls of thin, scratchy paper you find in public restrooms). Most toilet paper manufacturers aren’t sure when consumer toilet paper supplies will be “back to normal” because, well, the situation isn’t normal. Businesses, workplaces, schools, and other public spaces that used to order commercial toilet paper have no need for it, while consumer demand has significantly increased.
Suppliers have to shift gears as demand for consumer toilet paper outweighs that of the commercial sector, but it’s not a simple task. The products are entirely different, down to size and packaging. “Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins,” Oremus reported.
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